With Results Done, All Eyes on RBI 💰

Last week, we had flagged it as a ‘Sell on Rise’ market—and the script played out just as expected.

Benchmark indices remained range-bound and ended on a mixed note, with the Nifty slipping 0.41% and the Sensex down by 270 points. The mood was cautious, as Foreign Portfolio Investors turned net sellers, taking cues from global uncertainty and profit booking.

Global markets lacked direction too, with investors on edge ahead of the US inflation print and fresh signals from the Fed. Gold prices were choppy but ended higher, driven by global inflation jitters and dollar moves. The rupee stayed stable, aided by RBI’s forex support.

Even in a dull week, the broader market found some spring in its step. The Nifty Midcap 150 and Nifty Smallcap 250 delivered a strong gains of 1.2% and 1.8%, respectively.

Market Performance

Here's how the major indices fared:

Index	May 23, 2025	May 30, 2025	% Change
Nifty	24,853.2	24,750.7	-0.41
Bank Nifty	55,398.6	55,749.7	0.63
Midcap Nifty	56,687.8	57,420.0	1.29

Sector Performance

Sectoral indices put up a mixed show for the week. Nifty PSU Bank led the pack with a sharp 4.08% gain, followed by Capital Markets (3.35%), India Defense (2.73%) and Realty (1.33%).

Pharma (0.04%), Bank (0.63%), and Financial Services (0.05%) also closed marginally higher.

On the flip side, FMCG was the biggest laggard, falling 2.16%.

Other notable losers included Auto (-0.81%), Metal (-0.61%), Consumer Durables (-0.77%) and IT (-0.22%), all ending the week in the red.

Indices	Weekly Change (%)
Nifty PSU Bank	4.08
Nifty Media	1.67
Nifty Realty	1.33
Nifty Select Midcap	0.93
Nifty Energy	0.68
Nifty Bank	0.63
Nifty Financial Services	0.05
Nifty Pharma	0.04
Nifty IT	-0.22
Nifty Metal	-0.61
Nifty Auto	-0.81
Nifty FMCG	-2.16

Weekly Top Gainers (Nifty 500)

Company	Weekly Gain (%)
MMTC	31.75
ITI	24.34
Welspun Corp	22.77
IFCI	22.01
GVT & D	18.90

Weekly Top Losers (Nifty 500)

Company	Weekly Loss (%)
Welspun Living	-12.76
Gujarat Fluorochem	-11.74
Chambal Fertilisers	-7.62
Alivus Lifesciences	-7.25
Balkrishna Industries	-7.15

The market action was largely stock-specific, driven by Q4FY25 results and select sectoral trends. With midcap and smallcap indices outperforming, the top gainers list featured names like MMTC and ITI.

Liquidity Conditions

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers during the week, largely driven by profit booking amid global uncertainty.

On the other hand, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) continued to provide support as net buyers.

We Opine the flows were largely directed towards the mid and small cap segments—where broader market momentum remained strong.

India Equity - Institutional Funds Flow (in Rs. crore)

Date	FII	DII
May 26, 2025	136	1,746
May 27, 2025	348	10,105
May 28, 2025	4,663	7,912
May 29, 2025	884	4,286
May 30, 2025	-6,450	9,096
Total	-419	33,145

GDP Beats, Growth Still Uneven

India’s 4QFY25 GDP came in at 7.4%, ahead of expectations and higher than 3Q’s revised 6.4%, while full-year FY25 growth stood at 6.5% (provisional), in line with government estimates. Experts partially attribute the boost to the Mahakumbh event in Prayagraj, which spurred significant economic activity.

Despite being the fastest-growing major economy globally, India’s growth still lags its potential. A third consecutive repo rate cut from the RBI in the upcoming June policy remains a possibility, especially with softer capital spending and nominal GDP growth revised slightly lower to 9.8%.

Sectorally, agriculture and construction showed meaningful recovery, services remained steady, while manufacturing continued to lag with just 4.5% YoY growth.

Encouragingly, most sectors—barring manufacturing and mining—are showing structural growth compared to pre-pandemic levels, with overall expansion from those levels improving to 5.3% from 5% last year.

Globally, markets stayed volatile amid rising bond yields, tariff concerns, and weak trade talks. US indices ended slightly higher, while Asian markets lagged.

For the coming months, the early onset of the southwest monsoon, coupled with expectations of a normal season, sets a positive tone for rural demand and broader consumption trends in.

Technical Perspective

Markets opened strong but faced profit booking at higher levels. On weekly charts, a small bearish candle suggests caution, while intraday patterns indicate weakness.

Key support lies at 24,650 (Nifty) and 80,900 (Sensex); resistance is seen at 25,000 and 82,200. A breakout above 25,000 could take Nifty towards 25,250–25,500, while a drop below 24,650 may lead to 24,300 levels.

For Bank Nifty, 55,000 is a crucial support. Holding above it can extend the upmove to 56,500–57,000, but slipping below may trigger a fall towards 54,200.

With Results Done, All Eyes on RBI

The Q4FY25 earnings season wrapped up on a mixed note. Aggregate earnings growth for the Nifty 50 stood at a modest 3.8% YoY, with several index heavyweights falling short of expectations. While a few sectors outperformed, the overall momentum remained subdued, keeping investors cautious.

Looking ahead, attention now turns to the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting. With inflation under control and growth below potential, the central bank has some flexibility to support the economy. A rate cut in the upcoming policy is not off the table.

In the near term, we expect markets to remain range-bound with a negative bias, awaiting clear cues from the RBI and global developments. Stock-specific action is likely to continue dominating the trend.

Selective