Watch Earnings, Pick Wisely 👀

Market Performance

Indian equities took a breather this week, closing on a muted note as caution gripped investors ahead of the July 9 US-India trade deadline and the kickoff of the 1QFY26 earnings season.

Both benchmark indices — Sensex and Nifty — slipped 0.7% each, weighed down by global jitters and persistent FII selling that triggered some profit booking after the recent rally.

Interestingly, the broader market held up better, with the Nifty Midcap 150 and Nifty Smallcap 250 edging up by 0.61% and 0.68% respectively.

Here's how the major indices fared:

Index	June 30, 2025	July 04, 2025	% Change
Nifty	25,637.8	25,467.1	-0.7
Bank Nifty	57,443.9	57,044.2	-0.7
Midcap Nifty	59,385.2	59,678.3	0.5

Sector Performance

Sectoral performance was a mixed bag, with pockets of profit booking dragging down some sectors.

Pharma led the pack with a solid 2.08% gain, while Consumer Durables outshone with a 2.77% rise. PSU Banks (+1.96%), Oil & Gas (+1.41%), and IT (+0.89%) also added to the positive momentum.

On the flip side, Auto slipped 0.11% despite showing mid-week strength. Realty was the biggest laggard, dropping 2.21%, followed by Financial Services (-1.75%), Bank (-0.72%), and FMCG (-0.68%).

Indices	Weekly Change (%)
Nifty Pharma	2.08
Nifty PSU Bank	1.96
Nifty IT	0.89
Nifty Media	0.80
Nifty Select Midcap	0.57
Nifty Metal	0.02
Nifty Energy	-0.09
Nifty Auto	-0.11
Nifty FMCG	-0.68
Nifty Bank	-0.72
Nifty Financial Services	-1.75
Nifty Realty	-2.21

Weekly Top Gainers (Nifty 500)

Company	Weekly Gain (%)
Asahi India Glass	15.35
Raymond	14.18
DCM Shriram	13.88
Chennai Petroleum Corp.	13.21
Natco Pharma	12.75

Weekly Top Losers (Nifty 500)

Company	Weekly Loss (%)
Godrej Industries	-13.59
Sammaan Capital	-12.51
Nuvama Wealth	-11.95
Narayana Hrudayalaya	-11.13
Raymond Realty	-10.88

Asahi India Glass led the gainers’ list with a 15% jump, followed by Raymond, which rose 14% after spinning off its real estate arm into a separately listed entity. DCM Shriram surged nearly 14% after a favourable ITAT ruling.

On the flip side, Godrej Industries topped the laggards, slipping over 13%, while Nuvama Wealth dropped nearly 12% amid concerns linked to SEBI’s order against Jane Street. Raymond Realty fell 10% after its listing debut.

Liquidity Conditions

Liquidity remained under pressure this week, with FIIs extending their selling streak — pulling out Rs. 6,605 crore in the cash segment and another Rs. 10,975 crore in futures.

DIIs did step in with net buying of Rs. 7,609 crore, but their support fell short of offsetting the persistent foreign outflows.

The cautious FII stance reflects lingering jitters around the India-US trade talks and mixed signals from US macro data, which together kept risk appetite in check.

India Equity - Institutional Funds Flow (in Rs. crore)

Date	FII	DII
June 30, 2025	-832	3,497
July 01, 2025	-1,970	771
July 02, 2025	-1,562	3,037
July 03, 2025	-1,481	1,333
July 04, 2025	-760	-1,029
Total	-6,605	7,609

Muted Moves, Unclear Cues

The Indian market ended the week subdued, with investors treading cautiously ahead of the US-India trade deadline and the first leg of the corporate earnings season.

Auto sales numbers for June added little cheer — Mahindra & Mahindra stood out with robust growth, thanks to its recent launch, but the broader PV segment clocked a 6.4% YoY decline, with muted trends from Maruti, Hyundai, and Tata Motors.

On the consumer side, FMCG companies signalled a gradual recovery in volumes, aided by improving rural demand, though an early monsoon partly dampened summer-driven categories. Input cost pressures are expected to ease in the second half, providing some comfort to margins.

Global Snapshot

Globally, major US indices closed the week higher on the back of upbeat jobs data and easing inflation worries, while European and Asian markets painted a mixed picture amid lingering uncertainty over tariffs and global growth.

Other Asset Class

• Brent Crude oil prices ended at US$ 68.75 per barrel

• The rupee depreciated to 85.62 levels against the US dollar

• The 10 Year Benchmark G-Sec yield closed at 6.29% this week

• Gold prices closed at Rs 96,609 per 10 grams

Overall, With a mixed bag of cues, markets may stay range-bound until clearer signals emerge from the earnings season and the US-India trade outcome.

Technical Perspective

Intraday charts show a lower top, and the weekly candle is bearish, hinting at near-term caution. Still, the short-term trend remains mildly positive, with the market in a wait-and-watch mode.

Immediate resistance is at 25,500/83,600; a breakout above could lift it to 25,800–25,900/85,000–85,300. On the downside, a break below 25,300/83,000 may drag it towards 25,000–24,950/82,100–81,900.

For Bank Nifty, the 20-day SMA at 56,500 is crucial — staying above keeps the door open for 57,500–57,800, while slipping below could see 56,200–56,000.

Watch Earnings, Pick Wisely

As we’ve highlighted earlier, the June quarter results and clarity on the India-US trade deal will be key triggers in the coming days — and much of this may get priced in quickly.

We maintain a cautious stance for now and suggest staying stock-specific, focusing on strong earnings visibility and healthy management commentary.

Caution