Brace for Tariffs, Pick Stocks Wisely 🔍

Market Performance

Another week, another bout of jitters for Indian equities. The benchmark indices saw profit booking at higher levels, with the Nifty slipping 1.25% and the Sensex shedding 925 points.

Bank Nifty, too, closed in the red, down 0.51%. The volatility was fuelled by the lingering uncertainty over the India–US tariff deal — initially expected to close by July 9, but now pushed to July 31, 2025.

With President Trump’s unpredictable stance keeping investors on edge, the choppy ride may well continue.

Here's how the major indices fared:

Index	July 04, 2025	July 11, 2025	% Change
Nifty	25,467.1	25,149.9	-1.25
Bank Nifty	57,044.2	56,754.7	-0.51
Midcap Nifty	59,678.3	58,642.2	-1.74

Sector Performance

Among sectors, FMCG stole the spotlight this week, bucking the broader market weakness to gain 2.15%. Most other sectors closed deep in the red — with Defence and IT taking a notable knock, down 4.5% and 3.76% respectively.

FMCG saw a wave of renewed buying interest, thanks to upbeat management commentary from players like Marico, Godrej Consumer Products and Dabur. After a long lull, the sector is finally showing encouraging signs of double-digit volume growth — something the Street had been waiting for.

On the flip side, IT was the biggest drag, as heavyweight TCS reported results that fell short of street estimates, triggering profit booking across the space.

Indices	Weekly Change (%)
Nifty FMCG	2.15
Nifty Financial Services	-0.05
Nifty Bank	-0.49
Nifty Pharma	-0.71
Nifty Realty	-0.93
Nifty Energy	-1.13
Nifty PSU Bank	-1.78
Nifty Auto	-2.03
Nifty Metal	-2.06
Nifty Select Midcap	-2.90
Nifty Media	-3.26
Nifty IT	-3.76

Weekly Top Gainers (Nifty 500)

Company	Weekly Gain (%)
Jai Prakash Power	24.7
Glenmark Pharma.	19.2
Acme Solar Holdings	17.2
Syrma SGS Tech.	11.3
Lemon Tree Hotels	10.3

Weekly Top Losers (Nifty 500)

Company	Weekly Loss (%)
BSE	-13.59
MCX	-12.51
Titan Company	-11.95
Solar Industries	-11.13
Bharat Forge	-10.88

Jai Prakash Power surged as reports linked Adani Group as the frontrunner for its parent’s assets, while Glenmark jumped on a lucrative licensing deal with AbbVie. ACME Solar rose on a bullish brokerage call, and Syrma SGS hit a fresh high on plans for India’s biggest PCB plant with a Korean partner.

On the losers list, BSE tumbled as the regulator widened its probe into Sensex options, while Titan slipped after a lukewarm Q1 update.

Liquidity Conditions

On the liquidity front, foreign investors stayed largely on the sidelines last week, with domestic flows doing the heavy lifting for Indian equities.

So far in July’25, FPI flows have been mixed across key emerging markets — India, Brazil, Philippines, S. Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam saw modest inflows, while Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand faced outflows.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin hit a record high near US$ 118,769, likely fuelled by expectations of two more US rate cuts — reminding us that excess liquidity still loves a risky bet.

India Equity - Institutional Funds Flow (in Rs. crore)

Date	FII	DII
July 07, 2025	321	1,853
July 08, 2025	-26	1,367
July 09, 2025	77	921
July 10, 2025	221	591
July 11, 2025	-5,104	3,559
Total	-4,511	8,291

Trade Talks, Earnings, Support Breach

The markets largely stayed range-bound through the week but cracked important support at 25,300/83,000 on Friday, which triggered fresh selling pressure. Profit booking at higher levels weighed on sentiment, even as pockets of stock-specific action kept traders busy.

Jai Prakash Power Ventures grabbed attention as multiple bidders, including the Adani Group, showed interest in its assets. Meanwhile, Glenmark Pharmaceuticals surged after its subsidiary IGI presented promising Phase 1 results for its cancer asset ISB2001. The potential deal could bring in over US$ 200 million upfront, funding IGI for three years, easing Glenmark’s R&D spend, boosting earnings, and improving IPO prospects — all key triggers for a possible re-rating.

Globally, equities posted mixed trends as the US announced fresh tariffs on multiple partners, keeping trade tensions alive. Domestic sentiment stayed cautious with investors closely tracking the India–US trade negotiations, which have now been pushed to July-end, adding to uncertainty.

TCS’s underwhelming 1QFY26 update also dampened mood, with revenues declining QoQ due to the BSNL ramp-down and international weakness amid macro headwinds. Management commentaries from upcoming 1QFY26 results will be crucial in driving stock-specific action and providing cues for the next market direction.

With tariff developments, global cues, and earnings season unfolding, volatility is likely to persist — but opportunities will continue to pop up for stock pickers.

Technical Perspective

Technically, the trend has weakened. A bearish candle on weekly charts and a lower top on daily charts signal selling pressure. For the first time in a while, the Nifty has slipped below its 20-day SMA — hinting at further downside.

If the index stays below 25,300/83,000, weakness may extend towards 25,000/82,100 and could even slip to 24,800–24,650/81,500–81,100.

A move back above 25,300/83,000 could stabilise sentiment and push the index to 25,550–25,650/83,700–84,000.

Bank Nifty has key support at the 20-day SMA and 56,500. Below this, it may test 56,000–55,800. On the upside, a fresh rally needs a close above 57,100, opening targets up to 58,000.

Brace for Tariffs, Pick Stocks Wisely

Volatility is likely to persist as the tariff war extends till July 31, 2025. New US tariffs on Russian oil imports threaten India, which sources 35% of its crude from Russia.

With rising imports from China post the Russia-Ukraine conflict, supply disruptions could push costs higher, worsening the current account deficit. Additional tariffs would add to the pressure.

Though India plans retaliatory tariffs on US steel and aluminium, details remain unclear. Meanwhile, earnings will steer stock movements—investors should be selective and focus on strong results amid uncertainty.

Caution