Buoyant Trend to Continue 📈

Market Performance

It was yet another rollercoaster week for Indian equities — but this time, the ride ended on a high.Markets opened weak as the US stepped into the Iran-Israel conflict, reportedly striking Iran’s nuclear sites — spooking global indices.

But a surprise ceasefire, brokered with Trump’s mediation, quickly turned risk-off into risk-on. Global markets bounced back, and Indian indices rode the wave too.

The Nifty gained 2.09% for the week, while the Bank Nifty notched up 2.12% and closed above its previous all-time high. A fragile peace abroad turned into fresh records at home.

Here's how the major indices fared:

Index	June 20, 2025	June 27, 2025	% Change
Nifty	25,112.4	25,637.8	2.1%
Bank Nifty	56,252.9	57,443.9	2.1%
Midcap Nifty	57,995.5	59,385.2	2.4%

Sector Performance

For the week ending June 27, 2025, most major sectors closed in the green, supported by steady DII inflows, easing geopolitical tensions, and expectations of favourable macro data.

Metal stocks topped the charts with a 4.81% gain, buoyed by easing US tariff concerns and a softer dollar index. Capital Markets (4.75%), Infrastructure (3.37%), Oil & Gas (3.25%), Financial Services (2.61%), and Energy (2.65%) also delivered solid gains.

On the flip side, IT (-0.43%) and Realty (-1.94%) were the only notable laggards, weighed down by profit booking and sector-specific headwinds.

Indices	Weekly Change (%)
Nifty Metal	4.81
Nifty Media	4.36
Nifty Select Midcap	3.08
Nifty Energy	2.65
Nifty Financial Services	2.61
Nifty PSU Bank	2.49
Nifty Bank	2.12
Nifty Pharma	1.46
Nifty Auto	1.39
Nifty FMCG	0.88
Nifty IT	-0.43
Nifty Realty	-1.94

Weekly Top Gainers (Nifty 500)

Company	Weekly Gain (%)
Kirloskar Brothers	26.33
Nuvama Wealth	19.81
Narayan Hrudayalaya	18.90
Sammaan Capital	18.44
Endurance Tech.	17.17

Weekly Top Losers (Nifty 500)

Company	Weekly Loss (%)
KPIT Technologies	-9.11
Garden Reach Ship.	-7.53
Godrej Industries	-7.45
Ola Electric Mobility	-6.49
Cochin Shipyard	-6.16

Kirloskar Brothers led the gainers with a 26% jump, while Nuvama Wealth rose by ~20% as broader sentiment stayed positive. Sammaan Capital showed strong gains after making  timely interest payments.

On the losing side, KPIT Technologies fell over 9% after management flagged uncertainty in the business environment, while Garden Reach Shipbuilders continued to witness profit booking.

Liquidity Conditions

FIIs showed some outflows early in the year but turned marginally positive from March 2025.

This is a positive sign, especially as other emerging markets continued to see outflows.

We expect FII inflows to strengthen as India’s macroeconomic data improves.

Meanwhile, steady domestic institutional buying adds further support, creating a healthy liquidity backdrop for the market.

India Equity - Institutional Funds Flow (in Rs. crore)

Date	FII	DII
June 23, 2025	-1,874	5,592
June 24, 2025	-5,266	5,210
June 25, 2025	-2,428	2,373
June 26, 2025	12,594	-195
June 27, 2025	1,505	-766
Total	4,531	12,214

Cooling Tensions, Dovish Fed and Soft Crude

Markets gained this week on easing geopolitical tensions, steady crude prices, and hopes of an India-US trade deal. The Nifty 50 looks set to test the 25,800–26,000 range soon.

Firm global cues and expectations of an earlier US Fed rate cut could be the biggest trigger ahead. The Israel-Iran ceasefire is holding, and fresh US data supports the case for lower rates. On cue, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record highs, and Indian equities are tracking this strength.

The rupee closed below 85.5/US$, marking its best week since Jan 2023 as oil prices fell. Softer crude eases India’s import bill and boosts oil marketing margins. Gold prices also corrected, reflecting cooling tensions.

Global Snapshot

US Q2 GDP is projected above 3% on strong spending, while the dollar index sits at a three-year low. Major US indices gained 0.8–0.9%. In Europe, the FTSE 100 rose 0.55% and Germany’s DAX added 0.66%. Asian markets were mixed.

Other Asset Class

• Brent Crude: US$ 68.21/bbl

• Rupee: 85.49/US$

• 10-Yr G-Sec: 6.31%

Overall, stable crude, resilient data, and easing tensions keep the outlook for Indian equities positive.

Technical Perspective

This week, the Nifty cleared the key 25,300 level (Sensex: 82,700), boosting momentum and forming a strong bullish candle on the weekly chart. It remains in an uptrend on daily charts and trades above short-term averages.

For trend traders, supports are at 25,500–25,300 for Nifty (Sensex: 83,300–82,700). Staying above these keeps the uptrend intact, with immediate resistance at 25,850 for Nifty (Sensex: 84,400) and potential to hit 26,000 (Sensex: 84,800).

Short-term trend stays bullish; buying dips and booking profits on rallies is advised. A close below 25,300/82,700 may weaken the trend.

For Bank Nifty, breakout patterns signal more upside. Supports: 57,000–56,700–56,500. Resistances: 57,500–57,800–58,200.

Buoyant Trend to Continue

Going forward, key triggers like the monsoon update (which is expected to be normal), 1QFY26 results, and the upcoming monetary policy stance will be in focus.

On a positive note, the monsoon covered the entire country ahead of schedule — completing its advance by 25 June 2025, five days earlier than expected.

With supportive weather, healthy earnings, and favourable policy signals, we expect markets to stay buoyant. Just as Bank Nifty has hit fresh all-time highs, Nifty too could scale new record levels in the next month or two.

Caution