Volatility with Upward Bias 📈

Market Performance

Global geopolitical tensions kept equity markets on edge last week, and Indian equities were no exception.

Despite heightened volatility and pressure from global trade concerns, economic uncertainty, and fluctuating crude prices, the benchmark indices managed to end the week in the green—thanks largely to a sharp rally on the final trading day.

The Nifty rose 1.59%, while the Bank Nifty gained 1.31%. However, the broader market remained under pressure, with small- and mid-cap indices struggling to keep pace.

Here's how the major indices fared:

Index	June 13, 2025	June 20, 2025	% Change
Nifty	24,718.6	25,112.4	1.6%
Bank Nifty	55,527.5	56,252.9	1.3%
Midcap Nifty	58,277.5	57,995.5	-0.4%

Sector Performance

Despite a choppy week, select sectors displayed resilience and helped lift market sentiment.

India Consumption led the charge with a 2.17% gain, driven by robust domestic demand and strength in FMCG names. Infrastructure followed closely, rising 1.77%, supported by positive momentum around project financing reforms. Private Banks (+1.64%), Auto (+1.51%), and IT (+1.36%) also contributed meaningfully to the recovery.

On the flip side, defensives and global cyclical sectors lagged. Pharma and Metal declined 1.69% and 1.30% respectively, while Energy saw a mild dip of 0.39%, capping overall market gains.

Indices	Weekly Change (%)
Nifty Auto	1.51
Nifty IT	1.36
Nifty Bank	1.31
Nifty Financial Services	1.19
Nifty Realty	0.66
Nifty FMCG	0.19
Nifty Select Midcap	-0.28
Nifty Energy	-0.39
Nifty Metal	-1.30
Nifty PSU Bank	-1.31
Nifty Pharma	-1.69
Nifty Media	-2.97

Weekly Top Gainers (Nifty 500)

Company	Weekly Gain (%)
Swiggy	9.41
AB Capital	8.18
Crisil	7.82
BEML	7.65
Endurance Tech.	7.43

Weekly Top Losers (Nifty 500)

Company	Weekly Loss (%)
Astrazeneca Pharma.	-15.35
Hindustan Zinc.	-14.88
DB Realty	-14.49
Concord Biotech	-12.92
Brainbees Solutions	-11.86

Swiggy led the gainers on strong brokerage backing, while stocks like AB Capital, Crisil, and BEML rallied on sectoral momentum and fund flows.

On the flip side, AstraZeneca, Hindustan Zinc, and DB Realty declined due to profit booking, weak commodity trends, and cautious sector sentiment.

Liquidity Conditions

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) registered a net inflow of Rs. 8,261 crore during the week, marking a positive shift after recent outflows.

Meanwhile, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) continued their steady accumulation, contributing a robust Rs. 12,635 crore in net purchases and offering crucial support to the markets amid global volatility.

While this strong domestic participation has helped cushion the impact of external headwinds, persistent geopolitical tensions and elevated global risk aversion may keep FIIs cautious toward emerging markets in the near term.

India Equity - Institutional Funds Flow (in Rs. crore)

Date	FII	DII
June 16, 2025	-2,539	5,781
June 17, 2025	1,483	8,207
June 18, 2025	891	1,091
June 19, 2025	935	606
June 20, 2025	7,491	-3,050
Total	8,261	12,635

Liquidity, Relief, and Resilience

Markets ended the week on a positive note, with Friday’s rally being supported by the RBI’s revised project financing guidelines. The central bank eased provisioning norms for under-construction projects, cutting standard asset provisions to 1%.

This move is expected to improve liquidity and lending appetite, especially benefiting PSU banks and specialised NBFCs like REC and PFC. The relaxed norms, along with expectations of future rate cuts—as hinted by the RBI Governor—have improved sentiment around infrastructure financing.

Adding to the optimism, WPI inflation for May 2025 cooled to 0.4% YoY, the lowest since March 2024. This further opens up room for the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to cut rates if inflation remains within the tolerance band.

Globally, the US Fed maintained a cautious stance, refraining from rate hikes, indicating resilience in the US economy. Similar status quo was maintained by the UK and China as well.

Commodities & Currency Check

• Brent Crude softened to US$ 77.24/bbl amid de-escalation in West Asia tensions.

• Gold consolidated, with safe-haven demand still intact.

• INR depreciated slightly to 86.59/USD due to a firmer dollar.

• 10-year G-Sec yield closed at 6.32%, reflecting bond market stability.

In terms of global equities, performance was mixed. Asian markets led gains, with South Korea’s KOSPI jumping 4.40%, while the Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng posted minor declines.

In contrast, US indices like the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq closed lower amid concerns around growth and valuations. European indices like the FTSE 100 and Germany’s DAX also slipped due to macro and geopolitical pressures.

Back home, both Nifty and Bank Nifty closed above key resistance levels, suggesting underlying strength. The domestic institutional flow remained strong with Rs. 12,635 crore in DII net buying, further supported by Rs. 8,261 crore in FII inflows.

Volatility with Upward Bias

While benchmark indices have closed above key levels, the broader setup remains sensitive to geopolitical developments, keeping short-term volatility elevated.

Domestic institutional flows and RBI’s supportive policy stance continue to provide a cushion, lending a positive undertone to the market.

However, in light of the news-driven nature of current movements and external uncertainties, we will not be sharing specific technical levels this week.

Instead, we advise maintaining a selective and risk-managed approach, with a focus on quality names and sectors benefiting from macro tailwinds like infra, financials, and consumption.

The overall trend remains constructive, but nimbleness is key in navigating near-term volatility.

Caution