Indian equities ended the week and month in the red, with Nifty 50 down nearly 3% for the week and 6% in February—marking its fifth straight monthly decline, a streak last seen in 1996.
Mid and small caps tumbled 11%, dragging their one-year returns into negative territory. Unlike past corrections, India’s markets diverged from global trends.
The relentless rally in mid and small caps, driven by surging valuations, an IPO frenzy, and steeply priced listings, have now triggered a sharp reality check, leading to broader market caution.
Market Performance
Here's how the major indices fared:
Index | February 21, 2025 | February 28, 2025 | % Change |
Nifty | 22,795.9 | 22,124.7 | -2.94 |
Bank Nifty | 48,981.2 | 48,344.7 | -1.30 |
Midcap Nifty | 50,486.2 | 47,915.2 | -5.09 |
Sector Performance
All sectoral indices ended in the red, with Nifty IT and Nifty Media plunging over 7%.
Notably, Nifty IT logged its third straight week of losses.
Rate-sensitive sectors like Real Estate, Banking, and Autos also remained under pressure.
This was despite RBI injecting liquidity through various measures.
However, markets seem to be eyeing something more—another rate cut.
Indices | Weekly Change (%) |
Nifty Financial Services | -0.63 |
Nifty Bank | -1.30 |
Nifty FMCG | -2.70 |
Nifty Pharma | -2.81 |
Nifty Select Midcap | -3.82 |
Nifty Metal | -4.54 |
Nifty Auto | -4.68 |
Nifty Energy | -4.98 |
Nifty PSU Banks | -5.33 |
Nifty Realty | -5.52 |
Nifty Media | -7.07 |
Nifty IT | -7.96 |
Weekly Top Gainers (Nifty 500)
Company | Weekly Gain (%) |
Craftsman Automation | 11.85 |
Cholamandalam Fin. | 10.27 |
Five Star Business Fin. | 9.36 |
CreditAccess Grameen | 6.25 |
Shriram Fin. | 6.16 |
Weekly Top Losers (Nifty 500)
Company | Weekly Loss (%) |
RR Kabel | -22.91 |
KEI Industries | -20.03 |
TBO Tek | -19.94 |
BSE | -19.34 |
Polycab | -18.81 |
Weekly gainers were few, led by Craftsman Automation and Cholamandalam Finance, driven by earnings.
On the losing side, Aditya Birla’s entry into cables & wires hit stocks like RR Kabel, KEI, and Polycab.
Liquidity Conditions
FII outflows remained heavy, with Rs. 22,012 crore sold despite a truncated trading week.
While DIIs matched the buying, the broader market decline suggests FIIs' exit had a bigger impact.
Their selling spree isn’t surprising—mid and small cap valuations had surged well beyond long-term averages, fuelled by speculative activity and an IPO frenzy.
The signs of an overheated market were evident, making the rally unsustainable and a correction inevitable.
When the FII selling will ease remains uncertain, adding to market volatility.
India Equity - Institutional Funds Flow (in Rs. crore)
Date | FII | DII |
February 24, 2025 | -6,278 | 5,186 |
February 25, 2025 | -3,529 | 3,031 |
February 27, 2025 | -557 | 1,727 |
February 28, 2025 | -11,639 | 12,308 |
Total | -22,003 | 22,252 |
Market Reset: Is the Worst Behind?
At the end of February, Nifty’s one-year forward P/E moderated to 18.5x, while small- and mid-cap indices saw a sharper 25% correction from their peaks. Much of the speculative excess has been flushed out, leaving sentiment deeply oversold.
While the timing of FII inflows remains uncertain, valuations across large caps and select mid-caps now appear more reasonable, making fundamentals more relevant for long-term investors.
On the global front, trade tariffs by the US on major partners are expected to slow its economy, eventually pressuring the dollar and bond yields. Additionally, fiscal deficit reduction measures could dampen consumer demand and growth.
As markets chase performance, distortions occur on both bullish and bearish sides, but mean reversion is inevitable, and we should see it play out sooner rather than later.
Back home, 3QFY25 GDP growth accelerated to 6.2%, up from 5.6% in the previous quarter. While the worst seems behind and India remains the fastest-growing major economy, growth has fallen short of expectations, with global uncertainties and energy price volatility posing key risks.
Another key development was the appointment of Tuhin Kanta Pandey as SEBI Chief. With this leadership transition, long-pending regulatory actions, could gain momentum in the coming months.
Technical Perspective
We view the current market condition as weak but oversold, making a pullback rally possible. For short-term traders, 22,200 (Nifty) / 73,500 (Sensex) are key levels to watch.
A break below these levels could push Nifty to 22,000-21,800 and Sensex to 73,000-72,500. On the flip side, sustaining above these levels could trigger a rebound to 22,300-22,500 (Nifty) / 74,000-74,500 (Sensex).
For Bank Nifty, weakness persists below 48,500, with support at 48,000 and 47,500. A move above 48,500 could drive a recovery toward 49,250-49,500 or the 50-day SMA.
Strategy - Time to Start Buying!
There are two opposing global forces are at play—the Trump administration’s efforts to end major wars could ease geopolitical tensions, while on the other hand tariff disputes continue to create uncertainty.
In India, market pessimism seems overdone, with investors pricing in an overly negative growth outlook. However, macroeconomic indicators signal recovery, supported by pro-growth fiscal and monetary policies.
With valuations now below historical averages and earnings growth expected to improve, the risk-reward equation looks favourable.
History shows that investing during sharp corrections—when large-caps drop 15-20% and mid and small caps fall 25-30%—yields strong long-term gains.
Extreme pessimism often presents the best buying opportunities, and today’s conditions reflect just that. When there is blood on the street, it is usually time to buy.
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