top of page

Staying Steady Amid Consolidation 🚉

Prasanna Bidkar

In our preceding weekly report, we had suggested that “it is time to buy,” and the markets appeared to have aligned with that view. The benchmark indices rebounded sharply, with the Nifty gaining 1.93% (428 points) and the Sensex by 1.54% (1,130 points) over the week.


During the week, both indices briefly slipped below the crucial 22,000/72,800 mark but staged a strong comeback, forming a reversal pattern on the daily and weekly charts — a positive sign for further upside.


Bank Nifty, however, saw a modest uptick of 153 points (+0.32%), while the Midcap Nifty stole the spotlight, surging by 1,275 points (+2.66%), signalling renewed interest in broader market opportunities.

Market Performance

Here's how the major indices fared:

Index

February 28, 2025

March 07, 2025

% Change

Nifty

22,124.7

22,552.5

1.93

Bank Nifty

48,344.7

48,497.5

0.32

Midcap Nifty

47,915.2

49,190.6

2.66

Sector Performance

All major sectoral indices closed in the green last week, with Defence and Metals emerging as standout performers.


Meanwhile, Nifty Bank and Financial Services saw limited upside despite the RBI announcing further liquidity measures.


It appears that the market is now primarily eyeing a rate cut as the next major trigger — though the timing of such a move remains uncertain.

Indices

Weekly Change (%)

Nifty Metal

8.61

Nifty Media

7.36

Nifty Energy

5.89

Nifty PSU Bank

4.94

Nifty Select Midcap

3.22

Nifty Pharma

2.85

Nifty Auto

2.49

Nifty FMCG

2.37

Nifty Realty

2.35

Nifty IT

1.35

Nifty Financial Services

0.47

Nifty Bank

0.32

Weekly Top Gainers (Nifty 500)

Company

Weekly Gain (%)

Triveni Turbine

27.25

Sandur Manganese

24.25

Anupama Rasayan

23.07

Glenmark Life

21.79

PTC Industries

21.14

Weekly Top Losers (Nifty 500)

Company

Weekly Loss (%)

Gensol Engineering

-40.29

Jindal World

-24.10

Five Star

-9.43

Hatsun Agro

-8.44

Kalyan Jewellers

-7.04

Stock-specific movements were largely influenced by company-specific developments. Gensol Engineering came under pressure after ICRA downgraded its credit rating, impacting sentiment.


On the positive side, Triveni Turbine saw a sharp 27% rally during the week, driven by strong investor interest and positive business momentum.


Liquidity Conditions

On the institutional front, FIIs continued their selling spree.


While DIIs stepped in as net buyers, absorbing more than what FIIs offloaded.


With sustained selling, FII ownership in Indian equities has now dropped to a decade low.


The ongoing FII outflows are being widely attributed to subdued returns and concerns around Indian taxation policies.


Given the current sentiment, we expect FII selling pressure to persist for some more time.

India Equity - Institutional Funds Flow (in Rs. crore)

Date

FII

DII

March 03, 2025

-4,788

8,791

March 04, 2025

-3,406

4,851

March 05, 2025

-2,895

3,371

March 06, 2025

-2,377

1,618

March 07, 2025

-2,305

2,320

Total

-15,771

20,591

Markets Rebound After Weeks of Selling

The Indian markets staged a sharp rebound last week after five consecutive months of decline, driven by strong DII buying and broad-based participation across large, mid, and small caps.


Signs of a potential market bottom emerged, with DIIs increasing their long positions to an all-time high — historically a positive indicator for multi-month recoveries.


Interestingly, the rebound came despite continued FII selling, indicating improving domestic sentiment.


Metal and Energy stocks led gains, supported by China stimulus expectations and falling oil prices. Small-cap stocks also witnessed sharp upward movement, hinting at renewed investor confidence.


Globally, US markets faced sharp declines amid policy uncertainties and tariff reversals by the Trump administration, adding to market volatility.


European markets remained mixed, while Chinese equities gained on hopes of a fresh stimulus package.


Despite global challenges, India's market resilience signals a potential turnaround phase.

Technical Perspective

The formation of a long bullish candle on the weekly charts suggests a positive bias, with 22,300/73,700 acting as key support for Nifty/Sensex.


Sustaining above these levels could push the indices towards 22,800/75,200, with an extended upside to 22,900/75,700. A breach below 22,300, however, may shift sentiment.


Bank Nifty holds a double-bottom support at 48,000. Staying above this level could drive gains towards 49,300-49,700, while a slip below 48,000 may weaken the uptrend.


With no major triggers ahead, the market is likely to stay range-bound, with opportunities emerging on dips.


Strategy - Staying Steady Amid Consolidation

Building on our view from last week, where we highlighted that extreme pessimism often creates the best buying opportunities, the market has indeed shown early signs of a recovery.


However, with no major triggers in sight, we now expect the market to trade range-bound in the near term.


The broader narrative remains unchanged — valuations are still below historical averages, and earnings growth is poised to improve, making the risk-reward equation attractive.


While the momentum may stay capped for now, this consolidation phase could very well be the final leg of accumulation before a more decisive uptrend unfolds.


Staying invested with a long-term perspective remains the prudent approach.


Commentaires


Paterson PMS
  • Instagram
  • X
  • YouTube
Say Hello to Paterson PMS (Logo)-4.png

E-mail: invest@patersonpms.com

Sales and Support: +91 85111 44742

3rd Floor, Bhavani Mansion

4th Lane, Nungambakkam High Road

Chennai 600034

SEBI Registration Number: INP000005422

Paterson Securities Private Limited (Brand Names - Paterson, Paterson PMS, Paterson Securities) makes no warranties or representations, expressed or implied, on products and services offered through the platform. It accepts no liability for any damages or losses, however, caused in connection with the use of, or on the reliance of its portfolio management or related services.

Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Please consider your investment requirements, risk tolerance, goals, time horizon, risk and reward appetite, and the cost associated with the investment before choosing a fund, or designing a portfolio that suits your needs. Performance and returns of any investment portfolio can neither be predicted nor guaranteed.

Investments in mutual funds, stocks, ETFs and any other investment products that you see Paterson’s views being expressed on are subject to market risks. Please read all scheme related documents carefully.

© Paterson Securities Private Limited [SEBI Registration No: INP000005422] [Address: VANGUARD HOUSE, No. 48, Second Line Beach, Parrys, Chennai 600001] [Principal Officer: Prasanna Bidkar; Email ID: prasannabidkar@paterson.co.in; Phone: +91 44 42916515] [Compliance Officer: Sreela V Paroor; Email ID: sreela@paterson.co.in; Phone: +91 44 4291 6545] [Grievance Officer: Sreela V Paroor; Email ID: sreela@paterson.co.in; Phone: +91 44 4291 6545] [CIN – U65993TN1982PTC009656] [GST No: 33AAACP4386P1ZY]

[SEBI regional address: 7th Floor, 756-L, Anna Salai, Chennai - 600002, Tamil Nadu; Phone: +91-44-28880222 / 28526686; Email: sebisro@sebi.gov.in]

© 2024 by Paterson Securities

bottom of page