Stay Selective, Stay Steady 🔎
- Prasanna Bidkar
- Mar 22
- 3 min read
Indian equities staged a strong rebound last week, with the Sensex rising 4.3% to 76,905.5 and the Nifty 50 closing at 23,350.4—marking their best weekly performance in four years.
The rally was fueled by by positive cues including sustained buying from domestic investors, reduced selling from foreign institutions, and appreciation in rupee.
Broader markets saw even stronger gains, with the Nifty Smallcap 250 and Nifty Midcap 100 climbing 8% and 7%, respectively. This sharp rebound helped offset some of the recent losses, offering much-needed relief after a 14% decline from September highs.
Market Performance
Here's how the major indices fared:
Index | March 13, 2025 | March 21, 2025 | % Change |
Nifty | 22,397.2 | 23,350.4 | 4.26% |
Bank Nifty | 48,060.4 | 50,593.5 | 5.27% |
Midcap Nifty | 48,125.1 | 51,850.8 | 7.74% |
Sector Performance
All major sectoral indices ended the week in positive territory, reflecting the broad-based market recovery.
Capital Markets and Defence were the top performers, surging 14% and 10%, respectively.
Nifty Realty led the gains with an 8% rise, followed by Nifty Media (7.6%) and Nifty Healthcare (7.1%).
While most sectors saw strong momentum, Nifty IT and FMCG lagged, posting modest gains of 1.6% and 2.1%, respectively.
Indices | Weekly Change (%) |
Nifty Realty | 7.82 |
Nifty Media | 7.64 |
Nifty Energy | 6.33 |
Nifty Select Midcap | 6.31 |
Nifty Pharma | 6.08 |
Nifty PSU Bank | 6.00 |
Nifty Auto | 5.85 |
Nifty Financial Services | 5.49 |
Nifty Bank | 5.27 |
Nifty Metal | 4.85 |
Nifty FMCG | 2.13 |
Nifty IT | 1.61 |
Weekly Top Gainers (Nifty 500)
Company | Weekly Gain (%) |
Garden Reach Ship. | 30.56 |
DB Realty | 28.71 |
Nuvama Wealth | 26.10 |
KEC International | 24.93 |
Ramkrishna forgings | 23.00 |
Weekly Top Losers (Nifty 500)
Company | Weekly Loss (%) |
Castrol India | -6.48 |
KEI Industries | -5.53 |
CRISIL | -3.20 |
Archean Chemicals | -2.25 |
Tech Mahindra | -2.13 |
Defence and infrastructure stocks surged after Germany approved a multi-billion-euro defence package, with Garden Reach Shipbuilders soaring 30.56%. DB Realty (28.71%), Nuvama Wealth (26.10%), and KEC International (24.93%) also posted strong gains amid the broader market exuberance.
On the downside, Castrol India slipped 6.48% after trading ex-dividend. KEI Industries (-5.53%) fell as another conglomerate announced an entry into the wires & cables segment, while CRISIL (-3.20%) ended the week lower.
Liquidity Conditions
FIIs were net buyers in three out of five sessions, providing a key tailwind for the markets.
The inflows were largely driven by passive fund allocations linked to the FTSE index reshuffle, which brought in US$ 1.2-1.4 billion (Rs. 10,400 crore-12,200 crore).
On Friday alone, FIIs pumped Rs. 7,470 crore into Indian equities. For the week, net FII inflows stood at Rs. 5,820 crore.
DIIs remained net buyers except on the last two sessions.
India Equity - Institutional Funds Flow (in Rs. crore)
Date | FII | DII |
March 17, 2025 | -4,488 | 6,001 |
March 18, 2025 | 695 | 2,535 |
March 19, 2025 | -1,096 | 2,141 |
March 20, 2025 | 3,239 | -3,136 |
March 21, 2025 | 7,470 | -3,202 |
Total | 5,820 | 4,339 |
Global Shifts Set the Stage for FII Comeback
Foreign outflows may soon stabilise as global trends start favouring India.
With cracks appearing in the US economy and earnings downgrades picking up, uncertainty around rate cuts is growing. The Fed’s tightening cycle is easing, keeping the dollar index stretched and reducing pressure on emerging market currencies.
India’s underperformance is now reversing, currency risks are fading, and valuations remain reasonable. With most of the price correction behind us, FII selling could slow meaningfully, and selective buying has already begun.
The next leg of the rally will likely depend on an earnings recovery, driven by government capex and a pickup in domestic consumption.
A weaker dollar, lower bond yields, and shifting global flows could bring FIIs back in force. The only uncertainty? Trump. But at this point, markets are learning to tune out the noise.
Technical Perspective
The market remains bullish, with a strong weekly candle and a higher bottom formation on daily charts. However, overbought conditions may lead to some profit booking. Traders should look to buy on dips and sell on rallies.
For Nifty, key support lies at 23,100, while resistance is at 23,500-23,700. For Sensex, support is at 75,800, with resistance at 77,400-78,000. A break below 23,000/75,400 could weaken sentiment.
Bank Nifty surged over 5% last week, comfortably holding above 50,000. For positional traders, 50,000 and 49,700 are crucial supports, while the 200-day SMA at 51,000 and 51,300 could act as resistance in the near term.
Strategy - Stay Selective,Stay Steady
For long-term investors, patience remains key—markets have recovered before and will do so again. Panic selling is never the answer.
We continue to favour a cherry-picking approach, focusing on fundamentally strong stocks. Selective buying in volatile markets helps navigate corrections more effectively.
Remember, corrections are part of the cycle, not an anomaly. A 15–20% dip isn’t unusual, and it won’t be the last. The key is to stay calm, stick to quality, and let the cycle play out.
cautious
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