It was another volatile week for Indian equities, and the benchmark as well as broader Indices declined significantly. Benchmark indices are now 11% off their high, in just a little over 3 months.
More importantly, indices closed below important technical levels. To be specific, Nifty declined 2.4% to close the week at 23,432 and Sensex also declined 2.3% to close at 77,379.
Weakness was visible since January 03, 2025 and it got extended further till the closure of the week. With this, the Indian equity markets underperformed most of the global markets.
More Pressure in Broader Indices
Selling was more pronounced in Bank Nifty, and the mid and small cap indices. Bank Nifty declined 4.4%, and the mid and small cap indices were down 5-6%. Selling in midcap and small cap intensified in the last three trading sessions of the week.
Index | January 03, 2025 | January 10, 2025 | % Change |
Nifty | 24,004.0 | 23,431.5 | -2.39 |
Bank Nifty | 50988.8 | 48,734.2 | -4.42 |
Midcap Nifty | 57,931.0 | 54,585.8 | -5.77 |
The Only Bright Spot
All the sectors ended in the red week last week, with Realty and PSU Banks seeing the sharpest correction.
PSU Banks have continued exhibiting weak performance over the past four weeks. The Realty index saw some profit booking in the preceding week, after which it was down 8% last week.
Losses were the least in defensive sectors like FMCG and Pharma - with them correcting by 1-4% through the week.
Nifty Auto lost steam in the last week, losing 4%. This was on the back of weak retail sales numbers, which was contrary to the robust wholesale numbers posted by companies for December 2024, earlier this month. With this, the Auto index lost out on the recovery it had shown in the preceding two weeks.
The only sector to end the week in green was IT, gaining about 2%. This was mainly on the back of strong commentary by TCS on a moderate result. A sharp increase in deal wins, signs of recovery in the BFSI vertical in the US, and an upbeat management commentary lifted the mood not just for TCS, but also for the rest of the IT pack.
Indices | Change (%) |
Nifty IT | 2.02 |
Nifty FMCG | -1.21 |
Nifty Pharma | -3.79 |
Nifty Auto | -4.11 |
Nifty Financial Services | -4.24 |
Nifty Bank | -4.42 |
Nifty Metal | -5.35 |
Nifty Select Midcap | -5.55 |
Nifty Energy | -5.99 |
Nifty Media | -6.34 |
Nifty Realty | -7.83 |
Nifty PSU Bank | -8.07 |
Bottom-Up Approach Working Better
In our earlier notes, we had categorically stated that one should apply a stock specific approach. The quality of weekly gainers, with all of them being from different sectors validates our view and our approach. Similar has been the scenario with the top five losers of the week from the Nifty 500 list.
Weekly Top Gainers (Nifty 500)
Company | Weekly Gain (%) |
PTC Industries | 18.6 |
SRF | 13.84 |
Vijaya Diagnostics | 11.56 |
Concord Biotech | 8.28 |
Navin Fluorin | 8.08 |
Weekly Top Losers (Nifty 500)
Company | Weekly Loss (%) |
KEC International | -20.24 |
Kalyan Jewellers | -19.42 |
Union Bank Of India | -16.48 |
Inox Wind | -15.94 |
PB Fintech | -15.93 |
Continued Selling by FIIs
On the institutional flows front, FIIs continued selling and were net sellers to the tune of Rs 16,854 crore. However DIIs were net buyers for Rs 21,683 crore.
Indian equity markets have underperformed global markets in the past few weeks. Furthermore, global cues have become quite shaky, thanks to:
USD strength
An upsurge witnessed in crude prices, and
The Japanese central bank indicating short term interest rate hikes
India Equity - Institutional Funds Flow Rs. crore
Date | FII | FII (Futures) | DII |
January 6, 2025 | -2,575 | -1,901 | 5,750 |
January 7, 2025 | -1,491 | 2,368 | 1,615 |
January 8, 2025 | -3,362 | -3,785 | 2,716 |
January 9, 2025 | -7,171 | -5,640 | 7,640 |
January 10, 2025 | -2,255 | 2,848 | 3,962 |
Total | -16,854 | -6,110 | 21,683 |
What Next?
There are three important factors to be seen in the near term, which are expected to shape direction for the markets:
Corporate results for India Inc.
While the results season has already started and IT major TCS has already posted results in-line with the street estimates, a larger inflow of corporate results will be announced in mid / end of January 2025
We opine the earning cycle is likely to improve from 3QFY25. But any disappointment on this can turn out to be a risk for the markets
US Policy as the Trump administration takes office
The Trump administration's key agenda includes corporate tax cuts, deregulation, stricter immigration policies, and higher tariffs. Overall, these policies are likely to result in improved corporate profits and also potentially boost economic activity.
However, policies are also likely to cause volatility for global currencies:
While Trump has shown a preference for a weaker dollar and may even influence it to his preference using tariffs and social media, at the end of the day, broader economic fundamentals are likely to dominate
Tariffs could result in a weakening of the Chinese Yuan, which combined with a stronger US dollar, might lead to marginal depreciation of the rupee
In general, tariffs are likely to play a key role in weakening currencies of the affected nations
Trump’s policies, while boosting the economy are also expected to drive inflation. This will further influence monetary policy and rate decisions not just for the Fed, but for central banks worldwide.
India’s Union Budget
The tone of the budget would be keenly watched, and the market will look for cues that gauge if the fiscal policy tilts back towards growth orientation.
Additionally, crude oil prices would need to be watched as any further increase there poses some challenges for the Indian economy. Upcoming inflation data would also be an important macro data to watch out for.
Stock specific action is expected over the next few weeks as companies declare their 3QFY25 results.
Technical View
For short-term traders, 23,600 would be the key level to watch. Above this level, the pullback move could continue till 23,900. Further upside may also persist, potentially pushing the market up to the 200-day SMA or 24,000.
On the flip side, if the market falls below 23,350, selling pressure is likely to accelerate. Below which, the market could slip to 23,100. With 23,500 being tested thrice and then broken, we may see some selling pressure to continue. However if the recovery occurs, it would be quicker.
For Bank Nifty, the short-term formation is weak, and a pullback rally is possible only after a decisive break above 49,500. If this level is surpassed, it could bounce back to the 50,000-50,200 range.
Conversely, as long as it trades below 49,600, weak sentiment is likely to continue. On the downside, 48,300 and 48,000 are key support zones for traders.
As stated earlier, a lot of data points are to be announced and watched for on the domestic as well as global front. So volatility is likely to persist and keep market participants on toes.
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