The Indian equity markets remained volatile but closed with marginal gains, influenced by mixed global and domestic factors.
Key events included the US Fed meeting (Jan 28-29), where rates were held at 4.4%, and the Indian Union Budget, followed by RBI's repo rate cut of 25 bps to 6.25%—its first in five years.
Global sentiment improved as the US President paused tariffs for Mexico and Canada, easing trade tensions.
However, gains were capped by foreign fund outflows, rupee depreciation, and mixed corporate earnings. By the week's end, the Nifty closed at 23,560.0, and Sensex at 77,860.2, with broader markets largely flat.
Market Performance
Here's how the major indices fared:
Index | February 01, 2025 | February 07, 2025 | % Change |
Nifty | 23,482.2 | 23,560.0 | 0.33 |
Bank Nifty | 49,507.0 | 50,159.0 | 1.32 |
Midcap Nifty | 53,486.2 | 53,609.2 | 0.23 |
Sector Performance
Rate-sensitive sectors like Banking, Financials, and Auto saw early gains on rate cut expectations.
Metals and IT added momentum, while Pharma outperformed on strong earnings. Metals saw some recovery after weeks of pressure.
Realty showed limited impact from the rate cut, and FMCG faced profit booking despite the initial tax-saving boost.
Banking gained early in the week, but later came under pressure as the rate cut was pretty much priced in.
Indices | Weekly Change (%) |
Nifty Pharma | 3.48 |
Nifty Metal | 3.46 |
Nifty IT | 2.12 |
Nifty Financial Services | 1.59 |
Nifty Bank | 1.32 |
Nifty Select Midcap | 1.24 |
Nifty Auto | 0.66 |
Nifty Media | 0.41 |
Nifty PSU Bank | -0.32 |
Nifty Energy | -1.07 |
Nifty Realty | -3.65 |
Nifty FMCG | -5.62 |
Weekly Top Gainers (Nifty 500)
Company | Weekly Gain (%) |
Aegis Logistics | 20.77 |
Eris Lifesciences | 19.31 |
Castrol India | 17.55 |
Abbot India | 15.13 |
Chambal Fertiliser | 13.34 |
Weekly Top Losers (Nifty 500)
Company | Weekly Loss (%) |
BEML | -14.61 |
Thermex | -12.69 |
Keynes Technology | -12.57 |
Trent | -12.11 |
Triveni Turbins | -11.67 |
Movement in stocks was largely earnings-driven rather than it being sector-specific. Companies delivering strong results were promptly rewarded by investors, while even minor misses on street estimates were met with a cold shoulder.
Liquidity Conditions
Amid the volatility, FIIs continued their exit from the Indian equity markets.
While the net outflows were lower than in recent weeks, their selling still weighed on sentiment.
Meanwhile, DIIs offset some of this pressure with net purchases amounting to Rs. 6,449 crore.
India Equity - Institutional Funds Flow (in Rs. crore)
Date | FII | DII |
February 03, 2025 | -3,958 | 2,708 |
February 04, 2025 | 809 | -431 |
February 05, 2025 | -1,683 | 996 |
February 06, 2025 | -3,550 | 2,722 |
February 07, 2025 | -470 | 454 |
Total | -8,852 | 19,647 |
It All Boils down to Earnings
The RBI MPC’s 25 bps repo rate cut, while anticipated, had a muted market impact as investors remain cautious about limited room for further rate reductions.
With US bond yields rising and the yield gap with India widening, concerns over capital outflows and added downward pressure on the Indian Rupee persist.
In the coming week, market sentiment will be shaped by key macroeconomic indicators, including the IIP, CPI, and WPI inflation data.
These will offer insights into the economic recovery and inflation trajectory, influencing future policy decisions.
Additionally, investor focus will remain on corporate earnings and global cues, particularly from the U.S., as well as trends in foreign fund flows and the rupee movement.
With these factors in play, markets are likely to remain range-bound, with intermittent volatility driven by data and sentiment shifts.
Technical Perspective
From a technical perspective, Nifty held its immediate support at 23,400, aligned with the 20-day exponential moving average (DEMA).
The swing low of 23,200 remains a critical support to maintain a positive bias, while 23,900 acts as key resistance. A breakout above 23,900 could push the index towards 24,200.
Strategy - Fundamentals First Approach
In light of current market dynamics, investors should prioritise selective stock picking aligned with sectoral trends. Most major sectors, barring FMCG, are witnessing rotational participation, offering opportunities for focused allocation.
Caution is warranted in the midcap and smallcap segments, where broader market volatility persists.
Key macro triggers, including the Budget announcement, Delhi Assembly results, and RBI policy decision, are already factored into valuations.
As the spotlight shifts back to corporate earnings, stock movement is expected to realign with earnings performance, making fundamentals the key driver for investment decisions.
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