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India Faces Pressure Amid Global Shifts 🌍

Prasanna Bidkar

Markets resumed their corrective phase after two weeks of recovery, shedding nearly 2.7%.


The sentiment remained negative throughout the week, primarily weighed down by persistent selling from FIIs, mixed corporate earnings, and ongoing concerns over the global tariff war.


However, a moderation in retail inflation and resilience in select heavyweight stocks helped limit the pace of decline mid-week.


Eventually, the benchmark indices, Nifty and Sensex, ended near their weekly lows at 22,929.3 and 75,939.2, respectively.

Market Performance

Here's how the major indices fared:

Index

February 07, 2025

February 14, 2025

% Change

Nifty

23,560.0

22,929.3

-2.68%

Bank Nifty

50,159.0

49,099.5

-2.11%

Midcap Nifty

53,609.2

49,654.2

-7.38%

Sector Performance

In a week marked by widespread selling, almost every sector took a hit, mirroring the broader market’s downturn.


Real estate, energy, and autos were particularly hard hit, emerging as the top losers.


The broader market indices, plunging between 7.4% and 9.4%, caused substantial pain for investors, making it one of the tougher weeks for market participants.

Indices

Weekly Change (%)

Nifty Financial Services

-1.50

Nifty Bank

-2.11

Nifty FMCG

-3.58

Nifty IT

-3.75

Nifty Metal

-4.64

Nifty PSU Bank

-5.23

Nifty Pharma

-5.73

Nifty Auto

-5.93

Nifty Energy

-6.84

Nifty Select Midcap

-7.67

Nifty Media

-7.99

Nifty Realty

-9.40

Weekly Top Gainers (Nifty 500)

Company

Weekly Gain (%)

Godfrey Phillips

9.62

Bajaj Holdings

7.33

Redington India

6.17

SBI Cards

5.27

Honasa Consumer

3.96

Weekly Top Losers (Nifty 500)

Company

Weekly Loss (%)

Natco Pharma

-32.99

Concord Biotech

-27.90

Kfin Technologies

-24.98

Archean Chemicals

-24.56

Netweb Tech India

-19.71

The gainers and losers were mostly results-driven, with strong earnings rewarded and weak performances punished.


Companies like Godfrey Phillips gained on positive sentiment, while Natco Pharma faced a sharp decline due to disappointing results.


Liquidity Conditions

FIIs continued their relentless selling, offloading over Rs. 19,000 crore this week, pushing monthly outflows to Rs. 29,183 crore and yearly withdrawals past Rs. 1.16 lakh crore.


Rising US bond yields remain the main culprit—why take emerging market risks when risk-free returns are improving in the US?


Meanwhile, DIIs have been steady buyers, cushioning the impact.


Nothing new here—just the same tug-of-war keeping market liquidity in check.

India Equity - Institutional Funds Flow (in Rs. crore)

Date

FII

DII

February 10, 2025

-2,464

1,516

February 11, 2025

-4,486

4,002

February 12, 2025

-4,969

5,929

February 13, 2025

-2,790

2,934

February 14, 2025

-4,295

4,364

Total

-19,004

18,745

India Faces Pressure Amid Global Shifts

The Indian market faced selling pressure this week, with the rupee nearly touching 88 before RBI’s intervention.


Despite Prime Minister Narendra Modi's meeting with President Trump, market concerns persisted, and FIIs continued their selling activity.


Meanwhile, US markets cheered Trump's reciprocal tariff plans, pushing the Nasdaq up 2.58%, with the S&P 500 near all-time highs. European markets followed suit, gaining on optimism around delayed tariffs and potential geopolitical resolutions.


China, however, is the wildcard. The Hang Seng has rallied over 35% in five months, drawing global investor attention. Easing regulations and economic stimulus are making China look attractive again—raising questions about whether global funds are quietly shifting focus from India.


With earnings season behind us, the focus now turns to FII flows, currency movements, and global trade dynamics. Domestic indicators like the HSBC PMI data will also provide cues for what’s next.

Technical Perspective

Technically, multiple retests of the January low at 22,800 have weakened its significance, increasing the likelihood of further downside. The next key support levels are now seen in the 22,100-22,500 range. I


n the event of a rebound, the first major hurdle stands at the 20-day exponential moving average (DEMA) of 23,350, followed by resistance at 23,600.


Amid the prevailing pessimism, the relative strength of two key sectors—banking and IT—has helped cushion the broader decline.


Strategy - Turn Falls into Opportunities

As we move past the results season, it's the ideal time for investors to reassess their portfolios.


Focus on companies that have posted strong results or those that have delivered in-line results but have seen their stock prices fall.


The market is likely to give us a window to explore opportunities in these names, making it a good time to study and potentially enter these stocks at attractive levels.


Along with this, maintaining a focus on sectors showing relative strength—such as IT, banking, and pharma—will be crucial.


These sectors have demonstrated resilience, providing a buffer against the broader market decline.


In short: scout for opportunities in beaten-down stocks with strong fundamentals, while staying selective and favouring resilient sectors.


India

India

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