Earnings Will Decide the Market Direction 💸

Indian equities bounced back strongly, and this was visible not only in benchmark indices but also in broader market indices. The Nifty 50 and Sensex each gained around 4.5% in the past week, as markets resumed the risk-on sentiment.

The mid-cap index gained around 6%, while the small-cap index rose about 8% during the week. Global equity markets witnessed sharp volatility amid uncertainty surrounding global tariff actions.

The escalating US-China trade war has further positioned India as an attractive alternative for global manufacturing, with the country maintaining a conciliatory approach and working toward a provisional trade agreement with the US.

Market Performance

Here's how the major indices fared:

Index	April 11, 2025	April 17, 2025	% Change
Nifty	22,828.6	23,851.7	4.48
Bank Nifty	51,002.4	54,290.2	6.45
Midcap Nifty	50,501.5	52,657.8	4.27

Sector Performance

Sector-wise, all indices ended in the green, and the India VIX was down 29%.

Within the Nifty, IndusInd Bank (+17.6%), Axis Bank (+12.3%), and Adani Ports (+11.8%) were the top gainers, while there were no losers.

Indian equity markets also turned their attention to the 4QFY25 earnings season, with investors holding muted expectations.

Indices	Weekly Change (%)
Nifty Realty	6.95
Nifty Bank	6.45
Nifty Financial Services	6.17
Nifty PSU Bank	5.69
Nifty Media	5.14
Nifty Energy	4.28
Nifty Auto	4.01
Nifty Select Midcap	3.95
Nifty Metal	3.77
Nifty Pharma	3.25
Nifty IT	1.93
Nifty FMCG	1.67

Weekly Top Gainers (Nifty 500)

Company	Weekly Gain (%)
FACT	21.83
Emcure Pharma.	19.51
GMDC	16.18
Sterling & Wilson	16.08
IndusInd Bank	14.68

Weekly Top Losers (Nifty 500)

Company	Weekly Loss (%)
Zydus Lifesciences	-4.12
Anand Rathi Wealth	-3.67
Nava	-2.99
Rainbow Children	-2.95
Transformers & Rect.	-2.68

Fertiliser and commodity stocks like FACT and GMDC were among the top gainers, supported by a favourable monsoon outlook and firming global commodity prices. IndusInd Bank also rallied sharply, reflecting renewed investor confidence.

On the flip side, Zydus Lifesciences saw some pressure—possibly due to tariff-related concerns—while Anand Rathi declined post its 4Q results.

Liquidity Conditions

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) remained net buyers across all trading sessions last week, recording inflows of Rs. 14,670 crore.

This comes amid global uncertainty surrounding US-China trade relations, where India’s relatively favourable position on tariffs may have attracted incremental flows.

In contrast, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) were net sellers, withdrawing Rs. 6,471 crore—likely a result of profit-booking following the market rally.

While the recent foreign inflows offer a positive signal, the sustainability of this trend will depend on how global macro conditions evolve in the coming weeks.

India Equity - Institutional Funds Flow (in Rs. crore)

Date	FII	DII
April 15, 2025	6,066	-1,952
April 16, 2025	3,936	-2,513
April 17, 2025	4,668	-2,006
Total	14,670	-6,471

Macro Mojo: India’s Edge

While global equity markets remained under pressure due to trade-related anxieties, Indian markets displayed relative strength.

Notably, India became the first major market to fully recover from the April 2 tariff-related shock.

India Highlights

• Trade Deficit widened to US$ 287 billion in FY2025 (vs. US$ 245 billion FY2024)

• Inflation eased to 3.3% in March, thanks to cooling food prices

• Liquidity support came from FIIs, net buyers with Rs. 14,670 crore inflows

• RBI shifted to an accommodative stance with a rate cut to support growth

Global Snapshot

• US yields rose as Powell flagged inflation risks from tariffs; major indices fell (Nasdaq -4.6%, S&P -3.2%, Dow -2.3%)

• Europe braced for further ECB rate cuts; FTSE led gains (+7.9%)

• Asia saw mixed moves—KOSPI +6.7%, Hang Seng +3.2%, Shanghai +2.8%

Commodities & FX

• Brent Crude at ~US$ 66.6/bbl on supply worries

• Gold touched a record ~Rs. 94,629/10g

• Rupee appreciated to 85.37/US$ aided by RBI

• G-Sec yield settled at 6.37%

Despite global fragility, India's equity markets exhibited remarkable resilience, backed by a supportive policy backdrop, easing inflation, and selective foreign inflows.

While global uncertainties may persist, India’s differentiated macro positioning and proactive policy stance continue to offer relative strength—for now.

Technical Perspective

Markets closed above the 20-DMA and 50-DMA, forming a bullish weekly candle and confirming continuation of the uptrend.

While the short-term structure remains positive, some consolidation is possible due to overbought conditions.

Nifty has support at 23,500–23,350, while resistance is seen around 24,000–24,200. A fall below 23,350 could lead to a shift in sentiment.

Bank Nifty gained over 6% last week and stays strong above 53,100–53,500, with potential to move towards 55,000–55,300.

Earnings Will Decide the Market Direction

With sentiment turning decisively positive, the momentum is expected to sustain in the near term. As the Q4FY25 earnings season gathers pace, markets will shift their focus to corporate performance.

While concerns around US-China trade tensions persist globally, their near-term impact on Indian equities appears limited.

Earnings will now take centre stage, and any positive surprises—especially from banks and large-cap names—could provide further support to the ongoing rally.

cautious