Earnings to Take Centre Stage 💰

It was a short but turbulent week for Indian equities. Global cues dominated the sentiment, with the US administration under Trump firing off fresh tariff hikes—surpassing street expectations.

China responded in kind, intensifying the trade tussle and sparking a wave of volatility across global markets. India wasn’t spared.

The Nifty ended the week down 0.33%, while the Sensex slipped by 205 points. After a strong showing the week prior, the Bank Nifty bore the brunt this time, dropping 0.97%.

Midcaps, despite the choppiness, held up relatively better with a marginal 0.29% decline.

Market Performance

Here's how the major indices fared:

Index	April 04, 2025	April 11, 2025	% Change
Nifty	22,904.5	22,828.6	-0.33%
Bank Nifty	51,502.7	51,002.4	-0.97%
Midcap Nifty	50,646.0	50,501.5	-0.29%

Sector Performance

Sectoral trends painted a contrasting picture this week.

While Real Estate (-4.0%), Metal (-2.9%), and IT (-2.3%) bore the brunt of the market correction, FMCG (+3.6%) and Media (+1.0%) stood tall, defying the broader weakness.

Midcaps saw marginal gains, while sectors like Pharma, Auto, and Financials ended slightly in the red.

The Banking pack, especially PSU Banks, remained under pressure throughout the week.

Indices	Weekly Change (%)
Nifty FMCG	3.55
Nifty Media	1.03
Nifty Select Midcap	0.40
Nifty Energy	0.32
Nifty Auto	-0.22
Nifty Pharma	-0.48
Nifty Financial Services	-0.88
Nifty Bank	-0.97
Nifty PSU Bank	-1.53
Nifty IT	-2.30
Nifty Metal	-2.93
Nifty Realty	-4.00

Weekly Top Gainers (Nifty 500)

Company	Weekly Gain (%)
Rainbow Children’s	10.24
Jyothy Labs	9.89
Transformers & Rect.	9.86
CCL Products	9.30
Gravita India	9.25

Weekly Top Losers (Nifty 500)

Company	Weekly Loss (%)
Muthoot Finance	-14.11
Trent	-13.98
Thermax	-13.01
International Gem.	-12.96
Indraprastha Gas	-11.95

Amid heightened volatility and global uncertainty, the market found comfort in defensive and domestic-facing bets. Sectors like healthcare and FMCG saw renewed interest, with Rainbow Children’s Medicare and Jyothy Labs among the top gainers—riding on this shift in sentiment.

On the flip side, Muthoot Finance tumbled after the RBI proposed tighter norms for gold loans, a move that could impact growth for NBFCs. Trent also faced the heat, with investors reacting negatively to its below-par business update.

Liquidity Conditions

Foreign investors continued to offload Indian equities, with net outflows of Rs. 32,122 crore month-to-date (as of April 12, 2025).

This was driven by global volatility from US-China tariff tensions, affecting global bonds and equities.

India, along with Brazil, Indonesia, and South Korea, faced outflows, while Taiwan saw inflows of USD 446 million. In April, India experienced outflows of USD 1,877 million.

With muted expectations for Q4FY25 earnings, FPI flows are likely to stay volatile.

India Equity - Institutional Funds Flow (in Rs. crore)

Date	FII	DII
April 07, 2025	-9,040	12,122
April 08, 2025	-4,994	3,097
April 09, 2025	-4,358	2,977
April 11, 2025	-2,519	3,759
Total	-20,911	21,955

Rate Cut, Gold Surge, and TCS’s Headwinds

RBI’s Rate Cut: Growth Support Amid Global Uncertainty

The RBI’s second consecutive rate cut, reducing the repo rate from 6.25% to 6%, aims to support growth as CPI falls to a six-year low of 3.6%. With growth at a six-quarter low of 5.6%, the RBI shifted its stance from neutral to accommodative.

What stood out, however, was the Governor’s candid acknowledgment of global trade uncertainties, including tariff wars and geopolitical tensions, which cloud the growth outlook. This unpredictable environment is reflected in the elevated volatility index across global markets.

Commodities: Gold Surges, Crude Pressured

Gold: Gold prices hit a record high of US$ 3,245 per ounce, driven by a weak US dollar and escalating trade tensions. The geopolitical unrest and expectations of a dovish Federal Reserve added to gold’s safe-haven appeal.
Crude: Crude oil prices faced pressure as the US raised tariffs on China, dampening demand prospects. Despite initial gains, WTI crude fell back below USD 60 per barrel, weighed down by revised global demand growth forecasts and growing economic slowdown fears.

TCS Result’s Impact on IT Sector

Global uncertainties and trade worries are creating a challenging environment for IT services. With global growth slowing, demand for IT services is likely to be subdued, especially in 1HFY26. Distressed clients may push the pain onto vendors, which could impact demand and/or pricing in the sector.

The ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties are keeping market volatility high. While defensive sectors like gold and FMCG may perform well, IT and energy could face headwinds. Investors should remain cautious in this unpredictable market environment.

Technical Perspective

The market opened with a gap down but rebounded sharply, forming a bullish weekly candle and a promising reversal on the daily chart.

The short-term outlook remains weak, with key resistance at 23,000/75,800 and support at 22,500/74,200 for Nifty/Sensex. A move above resistance could target 23,200/76,400, while a fall below support may turn sentiment negative.

For Bank Nifty, after a correction, it is testing the 200-day SMA. Key support at 51,000-50,500 remains crucial for bullish sentiment. A breach could target 51,800-52,000, but a drop below 50,500 could push it towards 50,200-50,000.