Cautious Amid Global Cues 📈
- Prasanna Bidkar
- Mar 17
- 3 min read
After a strong recovery in the previous week, benchmark indices remained range-bound, with volatility dominating the session.
Nifty ended 0.69% lower, while Sensex dropped 500 points (down by 0.67%). Bank Nifty also saw fluctuations, closing 437 points (0.90%) down, largely due to weakness in IndusInd Bank.
The shortened trading week (holiday on March 14) offered no respite for mid and small caps. Nifty Midcap 100 fell 2.17%, while Nifty Smallcap 100 plunged over 3%, indicating that selling pressure in these segments persists despite the prior week's rebound.
Market Performance
Here's how the major indices fared:
Index | March 07, 2025 | March 13, 2025 | % Change |
Nifty | 22,552.5 | 22,397.2 | -0.69 |
Bank Nifty | 48,497.5 | 48,060.4 | -0.90 |
Midcap Nifty | 49,190.6 | 48,125.1 | -2.17 |
Sector Performance
Most sectoral indices ended in the red for the week, with only marginal gains in Financial Services and Pharma.
IT bore the brunt of recession fears in the US, dragging the Nifty IT Index down 4.49%.
Even Nifty Media, which had rebounded in the previous week, lost momentum, falling 3.44%.
Indices | Weekly Change (%) |
Nifty Financial Services | 0.66 |
Nifty Pharma | 0.04 |
Nifty FMCG | -0.02 |
Nifty Bank | -0.9 |
Nifty Energy | -0.96 |
Nifty Metal | -1.67 |
Nifty Realty | -1.98 |
Nifty Auto | -2.17 |
Nifty PSU Bank | -2.49 |
Nifty Select Midcap | -2.64 |
Nifty Media | -3.44 |
Nifty IT | -4.49 |
Weekly Top Gainers (Nifty 500)
Company | Weekly Gain (%) |
Krishna Inst. of Medical | 11.33 |
Aavas Financiers | 10.09 |
Chennai Petroleum | 8.78 |
Tata Communications | 8.59 |
Tube Invest. of India | 8.23 |
Weekly Top Losers (Nifty 500)
Company | Weekly Loss (%) |
IndusInd Bank | -28.09 |
Triveni Turbine | -15.69 |
Firstsource Solution | -13.87 |
Sterling & Wilson | -13.73 |
DB Realty | -11.91 |
Krishna Institute of Medical Sciences led the gainers with an 11% rise, driven by a strong 3QFY25 performance—27.49% revenue growth and a 23.46% rise in net profit, beating estimates. Avas Financiers followed with a 10.09% gain, while Tube Investments of India rebounded after its recent decline.
IndusInd Bank tumbled after it disclosed derivative discrepancies, impacting net worth by Rs. 1,580 crore (2.30%). Despite central bank assurances, investor concerns over 4Q results kept sentiment weak.
Liquidity Conditions
Foreign Institutional investors continued their selling and were net sellers to the tune of Rs 5,730 crore.
Though the domestic buyers continued buying, it was not enough to provide support to the benchmark and even broader market indices.
With the global markets already witnessing turbulence and precious metals also witnessing good traction, it seems the FII inflows are still a good time away.
India Equity - Institutional Funds Flow (in Rs. crore)
Date | FII | DII |
March 10, 2025 | -485 | 264 |
March 11, 2025 | -2,824 | 2,002 |
March 12, 2025 | -1,628 | 1,510 |
March 13, 2025 | -793 | 1,724 |
Total | -5,730 | 5,500 |
Global News Flow to Guide Indian Equities
Market volatility is set to persist as global uncertainty looms. The US Administration's erratic tariff policies—like the swift reversal of a 25% tariff on Canada—add to the unpredictability.
Meanwhile, US inflation softened, with February CPI at 2.8%, 10 bps below estimates, driven by lower energy and transport costs. However, with trade tensions escalating, a US rate cut seems unlikely anytime soon.
Recession fears also weighed on equities, despite strong US macros. The White House hinted at a potential GDP dip in 1QCY25, fueling debate over a real recession versus a technical contraction. Regardless, US uncertainty will ripple through global markets.
For Indian equities, liquidity remains stable, but stretched valuations in pockets—especially mid and small caps—keep pressure intact. As highlighted in our previous note, investors should focus on large caps and select mid-caps.
On the macro front, the outlook remains positive, with February CPI easing to 3.61% (vs. 4.31% YoY, beating estimates of 3.98%), and January IIP growth at 5% (vs. 3.32% YoY, above the 3.5% forecast).
Technical Perspective
The market remains directionless, with Nifty finding support at 22,300 and resistance at 22,650, while Sensex holds at 73,300 with profit booking near 74,900.
A breakout above 22,650/74,900 could drive Nifty to 22,800-22,900 and Sensex to 75,500-75,800, while a drop below 22,300/73,300 may trigger a slide to 22,000/72,400.
For Bank Nifty, 47,700 serves as double-bottom support, keeping the pullback intact toward 48,600-48,800. A breach below 47,700 could shift sentiment, opening downside risks to 47,000-47,300.
Strategy - Cautious Amid Global Cues
Next week, we anticipate range-bound trading in equities, driven largely by global developments in the absence of major domestic triggers.
With volatility persisting and external factors—such as US trade policies, inflation trends, and recession concerns—dictating sentiment, Indian markets may remain choppy.
Given this backdrop, market participants should avoid heavy exposure and focus on risk management.
Large cap stocks remain relatively stable, while mid and small caps could see continued pressure. A selective, measured approach is advisable until clearer market direction emerges.
cautious
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