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Holiday Season = Lower Volumes

Prasanna Bidkar

Taking it slow during the holiday season? Well, even the market is!


After a significant decline in the preceding week, the markets witnessed some consolidation, gaining nearly 1%, as the Nifty and Sensex closed at 23,813.4 and 78,699.1, respectively.


However, trading sentiment remained subdued due to persistent selling by FIIs and muted global cues, amid the onset of the year-end festive season, which limited recovery.


But then we must understand that it has been a period when foreign institutional activity remains slower. Lower volumes were seen and most of the build up was seen in the January 2025 series.


Index

December 20, 2024

December 27, 2024

% Change

Nifty

23,587.5

23,813.4

0.96

Bank Nifty

50,759.2

51,311.3

1.09

Midcap Nifty

56,906.8

56,972.6

0.12

Broader indices, including midcap and smallcap segments, ended almost unchanged, reflecting cautious participation.


Sectoral performance was mixed, with Pharma, Auto, and FMCG sectors showing resilience, while Metals lagged behind. Pressure was also seen in the sectors of IT and Energy.

Indices

Change (%)

Nifty Auto

2.30

Nifty Pharma

2.25

Nifty FMCG

1.52

Nifty Bank

1.09

Nifty Realty

1.06

Nifty Financial Services

0.83

Nifty Select Midcap

0.68

Nifty Energy

0.37

Nifty PSU Bank

-0.07

Nifty IT

-0.11

Nifty Metal

-1.05

Nifty Media

-1.94

On the stock specific front, it was mid cap and small cap companies, which witnessed good traction. However this traction could be looked at as a recovery, and not as a consistent up move.


Weekly Top Gainers (Nifty 500)

Company

Weekly Gain (%)

Intellect Design Arena

24.58

Amber Enterprises

21.56

Akums Drugs & Pharma

16.69

PTC Industries

16.69

Adani Wilmar

13.17

Weekly Top Losers (Nifty 500)

Company

Weekly Loss (%)

Titagarh Rail Systems

-12.38

KPR Mill

-11.76

Kirloskar Brothers

-6.72

KEC International

-6.57

JSW Energy

-6.57

Institutional flows remained weak through the week as the holiday season slowed activity down.


India Equity - Institutional Funds Flow Rs. crore

Date

FII

FII (Futures)

DII

December 23, 2024

-169

5,902

2,228

December 24, 2024

-2,454

960

2,819

December 26, 2025

-2,377

1,345

3,336

December 27, 2024

-1,323

49

2,545

Total

-6,323

8,256

10,928

Technical View

On the technical front, Nifty is striving to hold its critical long-term moving average (200 DEMA), but pressure from heavyweight stocks is capping any meaningful recovery.


A decisive breach below the recent swing low of 23,500 could intensify selling pressure, with the next major support level near November’s low of 23,263.


On the upside, the 24,100–24,400 zone remains a key resistance area, requiring strong momentum to overcome.


Market View

As we step into the new calendar year and month, auto sales data will be closely monitored for initial market cues.


In the absence of any significant events, attention is likely to shift towards FII flows and currency movement, especially as the rupee continues to weaken against the US dollar. These factors could play a crucial role in shaping market direction in the near term.


Amid mixed signals from the indices, some sectors continue to offer opportunities.

  • Pharma and Healthcare remain outperformers, while selective recoveries in FMCG, Banking, and Realty stocks provide potential buying opportunities

  • However, PSU and Metal sectors appear vulnerable to further downside, warranting cautious handling


In light of this, traders are advised to adopt a balanced approach, aligning their strategies with market conditions.


A focus on fundamentally strong stocks is crucial, particularly in the midcap and smallcap spaces, which remain volatile.


Diversifying across outperforming sectors while avoiding vulnerable areas can help manage risks and optimise returns in this consolidating market phase.

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